Three referenda for independence have either been recently held or proposed in the Western Pacific Region. The two most well known of these are the referendum on New Caledonia's independence from France held on 4/11/2018 and that of Bougainville's independence from Papua New Guinea (PNG) held from 23/11/2019 to 7/12/2019. The third independence referendum is that of Chuuk State from the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) that has been deferred from its scheduled date of 5/3/2020.
In New Caledonia's referendum, voters were given the choice of remaining part of France or becoming an independent country. Announced in the evening of polling day, the result was 56.4 per cent for maintaining the status quo and 43.6 per cent in favour of independence. The turn-out was 81 per cent of the 174,995 voters eligible to vote in this referendum.
Prior to the vote, the government and authorities in Metropolitan France stated that they would recognise and abide by the results of the referendum. Despite the failure of this motion, New Caledonians will, under the terms of the Nouméa Accord, have the opportunity to vote again in 2020. If that vote fails as well, another vote will be held in 2022 if one third of the Congress of New Caledonia agree to allow those votes to be held.
In Bougainville's referendum, voters were required to choose between greater autonomy within PNG or full independence. Of the 181,067 votes cast, 98.31% were for full independence and 1.69% for greater autonomy within PNG. The turn-out was 87.59% of the 206,731 voters eligible to vote in this referendum.
This referendum was conducted under the terms of the 2001 Bougainville Peace Agreement (BPA) between the PNG Government and the Autonomous Bougainville Government (ABG). The vote is non-binding and the PNG parliament will have the final say on Bougainville's independence aspirations. While the overwhelming result in favour of independence makes it difficult for PNG to ignore, it's expected that post-referendum negotiations between the two parties will take several years.
In Chuuk's proposed referendum, voters are to choose whether or not they want independence from the FSM. The deferral of the referendum vote for the second time is to allow more time to determine if secession, as it has been proposed, would be constitutional. Discussion in Chuuk about independence from FSM has been active for decades.
Although the desire for independence is a shared characteristic of New Caledonia, Bougainville and Chuuk, the tactics used by their current administrators to frustrate their independence aspirations are markedly different. In the years prior to the New Caledonia referendum, France pumped money into the New Caledonia economy and provided educational scholarships for young Kanaks to study in France, with the aim of creating an atmosphere of fear of economic catastrophe if France left. In the lead-up to the Bougainville referendum, PNG employed a diametrically opposite strategy of withholding financial assistance promised under the BPA, with the apparent aim of rendering Bougainville economically incapable of operating independently.
In Chuuk's case, the argument against it gaining independence is directly linked to its federation with Yap, Kosrae and Pohnpei States as the FSM, and the fact that approximately 60 per cent of FSM's budget comes from the United States of America (U.S.), through a special relationship known as the Compact of Free Association (Compact). The Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) reported in March 2020 that in 2019, Robert Riley, the U.S. Ambassador to the FSM, held a public forum in Chuuk where he delivered a stern warning on what independence could mean for the financing the U.S. provides through the Compact, covering education, health and emergency assistance. "There is no bad intent here, or malevolent intent, it's just that the Compact is with the Federated States of Micronesia, and in order for there to be another Chuuk, there would have to be a separate Compact negotiated", he warned. "That, unfortunately, will not happen".
